Who will be the eight advancing teams? Let’s run through the possibilities.
Barring a massive upset loss or underperformance against Puerto Rico, Team USA will likely be the top overall seed due to having the strongest point differential. (They’re at +43 before facing the tournament’s worst team)
The second seed will likely come down to Canada and the winner of Friday’s France-Germany game. All four are through to the knockout round, but getting the second seed means avoiding Team USA until a potential gold medal game (assuming the U.S. does as expected against Puerto Rico). To secure that spot, Canada must first defeat Spain Friday, then hope their point differential (currently +17) exceeds that of the Germany-France winner. Canada would much prefer a France victory, as France’s current point differential (+16) is lower than Germany’s (+33).
Friday’s first contest, Japan vs. Brazil, is a de-facto elimination game, with the loser finishing fourth in Group B. A blowout win would be ideal for either. More on that below.
Australia will clinch its spot and dooms Greece with a victory. A win for Giannis Antetokounmpo and company makes the third-place race really messy, with potentially five teams (Greece, Australia, Spain with a loss to Canada, the Japan-Brazil winner and the Serbia-South Sudan loser) on four points and a 1-2 record.
If Australia wins and Spain loses, the Serbia-South Sudan game to close group-stage play Saturday will be pivotal. The winner of said contest automatically advances, but the loser retains a chance to finish in the top two in point differential among third-placed teams. Here’s how the five teams in this hypothetical currently stand:
- Serbia: +15
- Spain: -5
- South Sudan: -6
- Japan: -24
- Brazil: -25
We know the Serbia-South Sudan winner will advance and the Japan-Brazil loser will be out. Serbia should be OK as long as it avoids a blowout loss, while South Sudan is in a trickier spot if it loses.
For argument’s sake, let’s say the Japan-Brazil margin of victory is 10 in either direction, while Spain loses to Canada by 10. South Sudan would then need to avoid losing to Serbia by eight or more points (if Japan wins) or nine or more points (if Brazil wins) to become the first African team to advance to the Olympic knockout round.
Regardless, the Bright Stars have the benefit of playing last and knowing exactly how they’ll need to perform against Serbia to make history.
Standings | Round 3 schedule
Source link